There is a Montana State Park near my home that is called Madison Buffalo Jump.  This is a rather impressive place.  Many, many years ago before there were horses in North America the Native Americans, in order to ensure a food/clothing supply, would round up a herd of buffalo (the more the better) and drive this herd to the edge of a very sharp cliff and then drive them over the cliff.  The buffalo would either break legs or necks and could not escape. The women would be waiting at the bottom and then would proceed to kill and dress out the animal.  This was the safest way they had to kill the animals.

The interesting thing about this story is how similar investors today are to the buffalo. In fact, when this event was taking place a large number of buffalo would turn to either the right or left and run to safety.  I have a friend that is a senior person with the Crow Tribe.  His name is "Burton Pretty On Top".  When considering this subject I called him and asked if there was a name for those buffalo who averted the disaster and he said, "Oh yea, Smart SOBs".  I happen to think that’s funny.

The point of all this is that we never want to be an unthinking member of the herd.  Currently, I am beginning to see signs of that in today’s stock market.  The more of this that is unveiled the more I will move to more conservative positions.

The current prevailing opinion seems to be that the housing slow down, home equity no longer available, $85.00 per barrel oil, $9.50 per bushel wheat just does not matter when, in fact, were it not for the declining value of the dollar (exports are much cheaper for foreign purchasers) and the growing foreign economies we would already be in a recession.  If you live just north of me in Canada you can buy US goods 25% cheaper than you could just one year ago.   For example, gold is at a new high of $750.00 an ounce; if you live in Canada it is approximately $550.00 because gold is always PRICED IN US DOLLARS and can be bought at about 1/3 less than last year.

Well, enough of that. Suffice it to say, Burton also told me that some of the Indians were hurt and/or killed when some of the buffalo refused to go with the herd and therefore survived—that is my position. I intend for everyone to survive and prosper.  We will probably get out early and  maybe even run over someone BUT WE WON’T GO OVER THE  CLIFF.

Regards,

Jack