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Jack's Market Thoughts
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  Posted on: Monday, January 29, 2007
THE MARKET WIZARD
   
 
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</i>Jack Hargis, CEO
Jack Hargis, CEO

   

The market knows all, sees all and tells all to THOSE WHO WILL LISTEN.

 

That sounds a bit hokey but there is no greater truth.  I work at understanding that message on a 26/7 basis (that’s not a misprint—sometimes I can get 1¼ into one hour).

 

The vast majority of the investing public makes every effort known to man to TELL THE MARKET WHAT TO DO AND WHEN TO DO IT.

 

A common belief is that the value of one’s portfolio is SUPPOSED to go up every MONTH.  As long as the investment was made for good solid economic reasons it will go up, but not necessarily every month, nor do we really want it to.  Why?  Because it will very soon become too popular, and vastly over priced, thus highly likely to severely decline.  A good example of this is Apple Computer.  Please tell me what economic contribution was made by providing the ability to listen to music ALL THE TIME, ANYWERE??  I  JUST DON’T SEE THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THIS.  If we owned Apple I would be a seller on Monday morning.  This is just to make a point—when making a decision to invest in a company there must be a very strong economic reason—such as, you know so much about the business and the prospects, in addition to debt levels, historical chart action, over-bought market conditions, status of the McClellan Oscillator, potential Federal Reserve action, Congress’ attitude, and you have listened to what the market has to say about this particular company for so many trades that you can tell what the risk/reward ratio is and when is the best entry/exit point.  After one has gathered all the facts and information available it is necessary to make independent and highly-informed decisions as to where this knowledge is best used for the highest possible return with the most acceptable risk.  Believe me, this takes 7 ½ hrs every day for quite some time.  This does not even take into consideration the amount of time that was spent determining WHAT to buy (that will be another time, another comment  THE OVERRIDING POINT HERE IS THAT THE MARKET HAS NO SECERETS—ONE JUST HAS TO LEARN THE LANGUAGE AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION.

 

THERE SHOULD NEVER BE A DECISION MADE  EMOTIONALLY, BASED ON HERESAY, RUMORS, COMMENTS ON CNBC OR WHAT APPEARED TODAY IN THE WALL STREET JOUNAL, BUSINESS WEEK, FORBES, FORTUNE, BARRONS, ETC.   Don’t get me wrong, I read every one of  these publications for the purpose of gathering information on current investor psychology.

 

One last note: of the many people that I know who have real estate, oil, diamonds, municipal bonds, etc., THEY DO NOT CHECK ON THE ABSOLUTE  VALUE OF THESE ITEMS EVERY MONTH MUCH LESS EVERY DAY!

 

THE STOCK MARKET REWARDS THE SCARCEST ITEM THERE IS----PATIENCE AND CALM.         

 

REGARDS,   JACK

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