I have never understood just why the world populace accepts anything spoken by a "Talking Head" or written in any publication as the absolute and unquestioned truth.

I get questions all the time about items from the above sources that are totally untrue and used out of context so as to convey a statement of fact that supports a particular agenda.

It is quite similar to the belief that a bull market reflects the financial acumen of the average investor.  Mr. John Q. Public absolutely accepts a truth that if his account rises about 50% over the 3 or 4 years of a record-setting bull market that there is "nothing to this investing thing."  You just buy some stocks and stand back and watch them grow.  Oddly, there are stocks that DECLINE by 50% during said Bull Market, i.e., it is wholly dependent on the STOCK SELECTION and constant (by the minute) monitoring of a portfolio in order to achieve great results.  You must regularly remove those positions that do not perform and add to those that do, all the while maximizing the income received from same.  It is so easy to just relax and assume that "anyone can do this" attitude without an exit plan for such time as the market reverses as, of course, it always does.

Since October 2002, I have been preaching that we would have a great bull market lasting to approximately 2008 after which time I would look for a rather severe bear market (with the opportunity for large gains). Well, recently (last 2 to 3 weeks) it is beginning to show signs that we are in the very, very early stages of the beginning of the end of this wonderful Bull.  The investing public is becoming entirely too comfortable and  brave for this to continue for too many more months.  There’s nothing like a 5-year bull market and a 5000 point rise in the Dow to produce a world of "Warren Buffets."

If this market is monitored closely and positions are pruned and option strategies are used wisely, there are still large gains to be had, however, it certainly will not be as easy as it has been.  As a matter of fact, it is going to be fraught with many pitfalls and many opportunities and it is going to take years for experience to know the difference.

Please be assured that we have plans for this eventuality.

It is truly a gorgeous day in Montana—happy day to all.

Warmest Regards,

Jack